The hottest glass futures are high, waiting for a

Glass futures are at a high level waiting for a new round of direction choices

the Bank of India cut interest rates and lowered the deposit reserve ratio to stimulate growth

US durable goods orders rose 4.6% in December, exceeding expectations. U.S. House prices rose 5.5% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2006

the Japanese cabinet passed a record high budget draft of 92.6 trillion yen for fiscal year 2013, raising concerns about the debt crisis

"Dr. doomsday" MCA: worried about the recurrence of the 1987 stock market crash, "the market will punish interveners"

caterpillar expects China's economy to grow strongly by 8.5% this year

glass index analysis

on the 29th, the "China glass composite index" fell 0.68 points compared with the previous day, "China glass price index" fell 1.26 points, "China glass market confidence index" Rose 1.65 points, such as the determination of material elastic modulus and specified non proportional elongation strength. The first two indexes continued to weaken and the confidence index rose slightly

glass spot situation

the spot market situation may not change much in the short term. On the one hand, the ex factory price of upstream manufacturers has been slightly adjusted, with both rises and falls. On the other hand, the bottom of downstream demand is emerging, and there is no significant change in the short term. Urbanization is expected to have a long-term positive effect on the glass industry, with limited short-term effect

in the demand situation of glass, Wang Jinghai, vice president of aluminum materials Utilization Research Institute Co., Ltd., expected that the demand highlights of glass during the year will focus on the urbanization expectation and the practical measures introduced when attending the forum held at the same time of the exhibition. In the short term, considering the callback demand brought by the weakening seasonal demand, we should pay attention to the game between the real estate regulation policy and the contradiction between land supply and demand in the medium and long term, and be optimistic about the seasonal recovery of glass demand

glass futures

on the 29th, the contracts in May and September were mainly volatile throughout the day. In May, the contract rose by 4 yuan/ton to close at 1488 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 60% compared with the previous day, and the position increased by -41606 hands. In September, the contract Rose 14 yuan/ton to close at 1580 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 30% compared with the previous day, with 34592 positions increased. From the perspective of disk performance, funds gradually moved to the September contract, and the performance of the September contract was stronger than that of the may contract

summary

due to the initial impact of the bottom of downstream demand, the glass market is relatively calm, and prices in some areas have increased or decreased slightly. Urbanization is expected to remain the focus of market attention. In addition, the issue of warehouse receipt registration and storage capacity is more discussed. It is understood that relevant departments are actively promoting the expansion of delivery warehouses. It is believed that the impact of storage capacity restrictions on glass futures will gradually fade. The short-term demand for glass cannot fundamentally solve the practical problems of the industry, and we should not overestimate the glass industry in the short term. At the end of the year, the contradiction between the macro medium-term good and the short-term bad actual demand for glass appeared, and we continued to pay attention to the patience of the glass industry to trade time for space. In the medium and long term, the positive strength of paying attention to industrial policies and macro policies determines the time point of bullish. On the 29th, glass futures fluctuated at a high level, and the performance of September contract was stronger than that of may contract

maintain the view: the situation of oversupply of glass fundamentals has not fundamentally changed, and the seasonal off-season has not completely passed. Whether the real demand for glass is rapidly warming determines when the futures will continue to rise, and attention is paid to short-term opportunities. Investors can directly search "Zhao Fei of Wanda futures" in Baidu to get contact information, exchange and consult about investment opportunities of glass futures

30 day operation suggestions

intra day speculators with frequent trading call back short and long operations, strictly stop losses, and position 20%; Large funds try to do multi price spread cross period arbitrage operation; Conditional production enterprises consider short hedging according to their own costs; Medium and long-term investors adjust their positions and hold multiple orders

Author: Zhao Fei (Wanda futures Xi'an Business Department)

the content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

China glass () Department